AUGUSTA, Maine — Federal fishery managers expect estimated right whale deaths and serious injuries caused by U.S. fixed-gear fisheries to be much lower than they were in 2022, Maine's Department of Marine Resources said Monday.

Commissioner Carl Wilson said the National Marine Fisheries Service based that expectation on a preliminary review of the latest entanglement data, updated population estimates and increased monitoring of right whales.

The review could bring those deaths and injuries closer to what scientists call the potential biological removal level than previously estimated, Wilson said. That level is the estimated maximum number of human-caused deaths or serious injuries a marine mammal population can sustain each year and still reach its optimum population.

Wilson called the federal finding "positive news for Maine's fixed gear fisheries, including lobster," and said it reflected an approach to assessing risk that "does not rely on 'worst case' scenarios."

The new data and analysis must still be peer-reviewed, and the Atlantic Large Whale Take Reduction Team is postponing its in-person meeting scheduled for December so that work can be done, Wilson said. A virtual information session on the status of the analyses is planned for Dec. 2.

According to an email from the federal agency cited by Wilson, the team will meet as planned in March 2027, with a second meeting in summer 2027 if needed. The goal is to publish a final rule by the end of 2028, as required under the Consolidated Appropriations Act, he said.

Wilson said NOAA has not yet released updated data in its Decision Support Tool, which could further shape the outlook for Maine fisheries. Federal officials have indicated in recent team webinars that the overlap between fishing gear and right whales off the Maine coast is likely substantially lower than in 2022, he said. Together with evidence of a growing right whale population and measures the fishery has already taken, Wilson said, that "results in a much-improved picture looking forward."

The Signal reported Sept. 1 that NOAA Fisheries had opened a public comment period, which ran through Oct. 16, on the scope of possible future rules for fishing gear that can entangle right whales and other large whales. The comments were to feed into Take Reduction Team meetings in 2026 and 2027.

Among the ideas the federal agency asked the public to weigh were caps on traps and vertical lines, weaker rope designed to let entangled whales break free, seasonal closures where right whales gather and new gear marking requirements, The Signal reported.

Earlier coverage: NOAA Fisheries opens 60-day comment period on Atlantic large whale rules

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