GRAY, Maine — Much of Maine and New Hampshire could see the first snowflakes of the season late this week as a coastal storm moves through New England, though forecasters said accumulating snow will likely be confined to the mountains, according to the National Weather Service office in Gray.

Forecasters there said Tuesday evening that "just about everyone" in their area still has a good chance of seeing flakes, though the snow may melt on contact. Trends for the storm have shifted toward a low-impact event, they said, and significant snow outside the mountains looks increasingly unlikely. A couple of inches is possible in the higher terrain.

The storm is expected to develop as low pressure moves east from the Ohio Valley and a secondary low forms off the coast south of Long Island on Friday. Weather models still disagree on its track, forecasters said: some carry the low into the Gulf of Maine, while others sweep it out to sea, which would further cut snow totals.

Vermont mountains

In Vermont, the weather service office in Burlington said widespread rain and snow are likely Thursday into Friday. Snow totals of 1 to 4 inches are expected along the spine of the Green Mountains and in the High Peaks of New York's Adirondacks, forecasters said.

Valleys will mostly see rain, though some snow could mix in Thursday night into Friday morning without accumulating, according to the Burlington office. Colder air behind the storm could bring snow showers to the mountains Friday night and Saturday, with valley rain possibly turning to a rain-snow mix or snow as temperatures fall into the upper teens and 20s by early Saturday. Several inches are possible in the mountains, forecasters said, but valley snow would likely be light and struggle to accumulate.

Cold rain for southern New England

Southern New England should expect mostly a chilly rain from late Thursday into Saturday, including Boston, Worcester, Providence and Hartford, according to the weather service office in Norton, Massachusetts. Some snow is possible in the higher elevations of Massachusetts and Connecticut.

Forecasters there said ensemble models give a 10% to 60% chance of 3 inches or more of snow in the Berkshires and a 10% to 40% chance in northern Worcester County, depending on the model. Snow along the coastal plain would require a much stronger storm with heavy precipitation, which forecasters described as a very low probability.

Gusty winds are also expected Thursday night through the weekend, with gusts up to 30 knots possible across southern New England and rough seas offshore, according to the Norton office. The Gray office said gusts could approach gale force over the Gulf of Maine.

Temperatures are expected to stay below normal through the first part of the weekend. Forecasters across the region said high pressure should bring drier weather early next week.