Cook Report: U.S. Senate a 'True Tossup'
(The Center Square) – Cook Political Report, which conducts election forecasting in races across the country, shifted its prediction outcomes for the U.S. Senate to a “true toss up,” meaning either party has a chance of winning control of the body.
The national political forecasting model shifted three new Senate races in the direction of Democrats. Previously, analysts said the race for overall control in the body was a toss up but over the last month, odds have increasingly favored Democrats.
“As of now, the current range of possible outcomes we see is Democrats netting between one and five seats; they must net four to win back the Senate,” said Jessica Taylor, an analyst at Cook Political Report.
Democrats are targeting competitive races in Alaska, Michigan, Ohio and Iowa, states Donald Trump won by double digits in 2024. North Carolina and Maine, which held single digit victories for Trump and Harris, respectively, are opportunities for Democrats to build a Senate advantage.
However, Cook Political Report analysts said races in Michigan and New Hampshire are being targeted by Republicans to flip. Democratic nominee Abdul El-Sayed in Michigan and Chris Pappas in New Hampshire are trying to fend off challenges to keep the seats in party control.
“The key question will come down to whether a deluge of ad spending can save Republicans amid a worsening environment as tariffs and the Iran War continue to spike prices, or if Democrats’ message can effectively harness anger about Trump’s economy even in ruby red states,” Taylor wrote.
She pointed out that undecided voters will play a key role in states where Senate control is in play. Taylor said many undecided voters tend to favor the Republican Party but that it is often not clear which way they lean until the final weeks of the election season.
“It's also worth noting that in some states with third-party candidates on the ballot – most notably Texas, Iowa and Ohio – defections in the GOP vote share might mean Democrats don’t necessarily need to hit 50% to win,” Taylor said.
Additionally, the Cook report shifted races in Georgia, Kansas and South Carolina to favor Democrats.
Analysts in the report moved its prediction in Georgia’s U.S. Senate race from “Lean Democrat” to “Likely Democrat.” The race features a match between incumbent Sen. Jon Ossoff, D-Ga., and Rep. Mike Collins, R-Ga., where Democrats need to hold the critical seat for the party’s future.
Ossoff has a massive fundraising advantage heading into the general election with $42 million raised, according to a July report. With this advantage, he has started to support Democrat Keisha Lance Bottoms in the competitive Georgia governor’s race.
“It is simply becoming clear that Rep. Mike Collins does not have the time or money — in addition to the type of profile — to make this race truly competitive,” Taylor wrote. “The Peach State contest has simply moved further off the board for Republicans.”
The Cook Report also shifted the Kansas senate race between Sen. Roger Marshall, R-Kansas, and Democrat Adam Hamilton from “Likely Republican” to “Lean Republican.” Beef tariffs, high fuel and fertilizer prices due to the U.S. military conflict with Iran and trade with Canada are key issues for Kansas residents and a dividing line between the two candidates.
“We see this as an increasingly worrisome contest for the GOP that should be called competitive at this juncture, though one where Republicans still have the edge,” Taylor wrote.
Additionally, the Cook Report shifted South Carolina’s U.S. Senate race from “Solid Republican to “Likely Republican.” The race between Sen. Darline Graham and Annie Andrews is expected to remain heavily tilted in favor of Republicans but prominent Democrat fundraising and questions around Graham’s qualifications muddy the prospects.
“Some in-state Republicans privately express enough angst about Graham’s soft numbers and fears of low turnout that it moves from Solid to Likely Republican,” Taylor wrote.
"If Republicans do hold onto the majority, it will be because the map, from the outset, was simply too tilted against Democrats in an increasingly polarized electorate,” Taylor wrote. “Still, the seats that Democrats must put in play this cycle remain — by the numbers alone — unmistakably red.”
This article was originally published by The Center Square.